Tonight, St. John's Red Storm plays its first game as a ranked team in 10 years against the lowly DePaul Blue Demons. The Blue Demons are improving, they're threatening. But the Red Storm are at home, and it's the 500th contest at Carnesecca Arena.
The Red Storm should easily prevail, sending happy fans onto Union Turnpike and onto the Long Island Expressway and up Utopia Parkway, singing the praises of the program.
Except... the games at Carnesecca Arena have been a little too close for comfort. remember that loss to Cincinnati where the team couldn't hit their free throws. Or that squeaker of a win to the tough Rutgers Scarlet Knights. That loss to the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The two too-close-for-comfort wins against the Columbia Lions and the Wagner Seahawks?
The team's record at Carnesecca in the five games played on-campus isn't quite what the team intended. Two losses in the place where the mediocre opponents are relegated? Adding that to lackadaisical performances last year... does the team actually play differently at MSG than they do at Carnesecca?
What's the problem?
Below, some basic and some tempo-neutral tables, comparing the Red Storm's performance at Carnesecca vs. their performance over all, at Madison Square Garden, and in their last 4 games, below the fold.
First, the tempo-neutral look, with the bad numbers marked in red:
|
Tempo-Neutral Average Performance
|
|||||||||
|
|
ST. JOHN'S
|
OPPONENTS
|
|||||||
| VENUE |
Pace
|
PPP
|
eFG%
|
FTR
|
TO%
|
PPP
|
eFG%
|
FTR
|
TO%
|
| All |
66.0
|
1.052
|
49.4
|
45.8
|
18.3
|
1.002
|
50.9
|
41.1
|
24.9
|
| MSG |
66.1
|
1.096
|
51.7
|
52.6
|
18.9
|
0.989
|
49.5
|
39.0
|
24.7
|
| CAR |
63.8
|
1.012
|
43.9
|
49.3
|
13.6
|
0.950
|
48.9
|
32.9
|
29.9
|
| Last 4 |
64.5
|
1.108
|
51.3
|
48.8
|
18.7
|
0.990
|
47.9
|
42.7
|
22.4
|
Note how the games at Carnesecca Arena are slower-paced affairs - fewer possessions, fewer shots - and the Red Storm's shooting (eFG is field goal percentage that incorporates 3-pointers) also drops off quite a bit.
They do force more turnovers against opponents at Carnesecca. That's to be expected; the teams that played at Carnesecca are Columbia,Wagner, St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, and Cincinnati.
Let's go to the FTR column (Free Throw Rate). St. John's shoots free throws at a rate of 1 for every 2 shots, on average' opponents are closer to 1 of every 3 shots. Standard percentages tell the story of what happens next:
|
Average Performance
|
|||||||||
|
|
ST. JOHN'S
|
OPPONENTS
|
|||||||
| VENUE |
Pace
|
Pts
|
FG%
|
FT%
|
TO
|
Pts
|
FG%
|
FT%
|
TO
|
| All |
66.0
|
69.4
|
45.4%
|
71.2%
|
12.1
|
66.3
|
43.4%
|
70.4%
|
16.3
|
| MSG |
66.1
|
72.6
|
48.0%
|
78.2%
|
12.6
|
65.4
|
42.6%
|
68.6%
|
16.3
|
| CAR |
63.8
|
64.6
|
39.4%
|
57.9%
|
8.6
|
60.6
|
41.5%
|
75.6%
|
19.0
|
| Last 4 |
64.5
|
72.0
|
46.6%
|
77.3%
|
11.8
|
64.0
|
40.0%
|
64.4%
|
14.3
|
That 57.9% free throw shooting percentage is abysmal! Meanwhile, opponents are killing it from the line, hitting 75.6%. Game by game:
|
StJ FT%
|
OPP FT%
|
|
| Columbia |
65.0%
|
72.7%
|
| Wagner |
61.1%
|
76.5%
|
| St. Bonaventure |
50.0%
|
81.8%
|
| Cincinnati |
46.2%
|
85.7%
|
| Rutgers |
64.5%
|
64.3%
|
Except for Rutgers (who must be kicking themselves about the points the left at the line), those are some healthy free throw shooting percentages, and some serious disparities. The field goal shooting isn't much better:
|
Average Performance
|
|||||||
|
ST. JOHN'S
|
OPPONENTS
|
||||||
| VENUE |
Pace
|
FT%
|
2P%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
2P%
|
3P%
|
| All |
66.0
|
71.2%
|
49.0%
|
33.3%
|
70.4%
|
48.2%
|
36.4%
|
| MSG |
66.1
|
78.2%
|
50.5%
|
38.6%
|
68.6%
|
49.0%
|
33.5%
|
| CAR |
63.8
|
57.9%
|
41.0%
|
35.1%
|
75.6%
|
42.5%
|
39.8%
|
| Last 4 |
64.5
|
77.3%
|
47.5%
|
43.8%
|
64.4%
|
43.0%
|
36.0%
|
The early struggles of the St. John's offense are part of the problem. Remember, it took Dwight Hardy a while to find his shooting stroke and get to the Player of the Year candidate level he's at now.
While Dwight was struggling to make shots from the field, he, D.J. Kennedy, and Paris Horne have all missed a few more shots at the free throw line at Carnesecca:
| Horne |
Min
|
Pts
|
FG
|
FGA
|
FG%
|
FT
|
FTA
|
FT%
|
| AVG (all) |
26.6
|
7.3
|
2.5
|
5.8
|
44.0%
|
1.6
|
2.7
|
60.3%
|
| AVG (CAR) |
28.0
|
7.8
|
2.8
|
6.8
|
41.2%
|
1.4
|
3.4
|
41.2%
|
| Hardy |
Min
|
Pts
|
FG
|
FGA
|
FG%
|
FT
|
FTA
|
FT%
|
| AVG (all) |
33.7
|
17.2
|
5.3
|
12.1
|
44.1%
|
4.7
|
5.4
|
86.4%
|
| AVG (CAR) |
31.4
|
13.6
|
4.8
|
12.4
|
38.7%
|
2.4
|
3.4
|
70.6%
|
| Kennedy |
Min
|
Pts
|
FG
|
FGA
|
FG%
|
FT
|
FTA
|
FT%
|
| AVG (all) |
29.3
|
10.5
|
3.5
|
7.4
|
47.4%
|
2.9
|
3.8
|
77.6%
|
| AVG (CAR) |
28.6
|
11.4
|
3.6
|
7.8
|
46.2%
|
3.4
|
5.8
|
58.6%
|
Is it the home fans? Is it the lack of a big-game atmosphere, despite the good crowds at Carnesecca Arena? Are the players not taking the opponents seriously enough? Are the fellas lacking concentration? Are the sight lines at Carnesecca hurting the players at the line? Are the fans too familiar?
Whatever it is, here is hope that DePaul is the cure for what ails the Carnesecca Arena shooting woes. The home fans deserve to see a good thumping of DePaul tonight.