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To better get a sense of what the new basketball league could look like once the Big East basketball schools formally figure out their plan and separate, let's fire up some information from KenPom.com. Included are attendance figures for the possible Big East additions breaking off, and historical markers in the form of wins, NCAA appearances, Final Fours, and championships - what we grade the best of the best on.
The Big East loses four teams that are projected to receive NCAA Tournament bids, and also Rutgers. But if plans go according to rumor, the schools gain programs with rabid fanbases and solid histories.
Per-game attendance figures are for 2011-12, and reported to the NCAA; historical wins records are through 2011-12.
Historically:
Now
|
Historically
|
|||||||
Basketball schools |
Per-game attendance
|
KenPom Rank (12/13)
|
NCAA Tourn. Appearances
|
NCAA Final Fours
|
NCAA Champs
|
Overall NCAA wins
|
Win Rank
|
First season
|
Georgetown |
11,283
|
29
|
28
|
5
|
1
|
1,520
|
32
|
1907
|
Marquette |
15,138
|
40
|
30
|
3
|
1
|
1,467
|
48
|
1917
|
Providence |
7,883
|
73
|
15
|
2
|
1,301
|
92
|
1921
|
|
Seton Hall |
6,941
|
80
|
9
|
1
|
1,360
|
80
|
1904
|
|
St. John's |
8,428
|
91
|
28
|
2
|
1,724
|
7
|
1908
|
|
Villanova |
8,923
|
93
|
32
|
4
|
1
|
1,551
|
27
|
1921
|
DePaul |
7,740
|
85
|
22
|
2
|
1,367
|
78
|
1924
|
Here it's a group of schools with at least 85 years of basketball experience. Seton Hall is the oldest program under the NCAA umbrella. Providence has the lowest number of wins, while Seton Hall has the fewest NCAA Tournament appearances (which is a surprise). Villanova leads in NCAA Tournament appearances, but Georgetown leads with 5 Final Fours. St. John's leads in overall wins with 1,724.
Right now, the Big East hoops schools are working towards better future, but the present doesn't project this group to have more than two NCAA Tournament teams. It could change in conference play very easily. History is important to this group, and history (and a lack of football) seems to be holding it together.
Here is what the Big East is looking to add:
Now
|
Historically
|
|||||||
Possible additions |
Per-game attendance
|
KenPom Rank (12/13)
|
NCAA Tourn. Appearances
|
NCAA Final Fours
|
NCAA Champs
|
Overall NCAA wins
|
Win Rank
|
First season
|
Butler |
6,599
|
55
|
11
|
2
|
1,427
|
61
|
1897
|
|
Creighton |
16,665
|
15
|
17
|
1,408
|
65
|
1912
|
||
Dayton |
12,154
|
75
|
14
|
1
|
1,471
|
45
|
1904
|
|
George Mason |
5,161
|
96
|
6
|
1
|
658
|
297
|
1967
|
|
Gonzaga |
6,212
|
11
|
15
|
1,416
|
62
|
1908
|
||
Saint Louis |
7,757
|
52
|
7
|
1,276
|
107
|
1916
|
||
St. Mary’s (CA)* |
2,840
|
50
|
7
|
1,124
|
167
|
1910
|
||
VCU |
7,622
|
17
|
11
|
1
|
762
|
270
|
1971
|
|
Xavier |
10,155
|
81
|
23
|
1,306
|
90
|
1920
|
||
*For schools with smaller gyms, a small figure does not mean lack of interest. |
DePaul would still be the youngest program in the league if all of the teams in this group were added.
Butler's recent Final Fours add luster to their 110+ year history, while Xavier has earned 23 NCAA Tournament appearances. Creighton, Xavier, and Dayton enjoy huge attendance in their home arenas. St. Mary's home court seats 3,500 and Gonzaga's seats 6,000, deflating their possible attendance numbers.
Creighton and Gonzaga would come in as teams riding a high of recent success, and are on track to win at-large bids for the NCAA Tournament. Both VCU and George Mason have had recent succerss, but are youthful programs like Central and South Florida (see below).
For comparison, here are the schools leaving the Big East Conference. There are a lot of wins, championships, and memories. And Rutgers.
Now
|
Historically
|
|||||||
Departing schools |
Per-game attendance
|
KenPom Rank (12/13)
|
NCAA Tourn. Appearances
|
NCAA Final Fours
|
NCAA Champs
|
Overall NCAA wins
|
Win Rank
|
First season
|
Syracuse |
23,618
|
4
|
35
|
4
|
1
|
1,810
|
5
|
1901
|
Louisville |
21,503
|
3
|
38
|
9
|
2
|
1,632
|
18
|
1912
|
Notre Dame |
7,999
|
22
|
32
|
1
|
1,701
|
9
|
1898
|
|
Pittsburgh |
8,801
|
7
|
23
|
1
|
1,465
|
49
|
1906
|
|
Rutgers |
5,362
|
79
|
6
|
1
|
1,141
|
159
|
1907
|
Syracuse's win total is the fifth best of all current NCAA programs. And with 13 combined Final Fours, Louisville and Syracuse have been excellent programs, consistently appearing in the NCAA Tournament. And their attendance shows it. This season, both are elite teams, with Pittsburgh and Notre Dame not far behind.
And here is what the Big East basketball schools have chosen to depart from.
Now
|
Historically
|
|||||||
All-Sports schools |
Per-game attendance
|
KenPom Rank (12/13)
|
NCAA Tourn. Appearances
|
NCAA Final Fours
|
NCAA Champs
|
Overall NCAA wins
|
Win Rank
|
First season
|
Cincinnati |
8,069
|
16
|
26
|
6
|
2
|
1,598
|
23
|
1902
|
Connecticut |
12,640
|
53
|
31
|
4
|
3
|
1,549
|
28
|
1901
|
Houston* |
3,788
|
212
|
19
|
5
|
1,117
|
171
|
1946
|
|
Memphis |
16,234
|
33
|
24
|
3
|
1,384
|
71
|
1921
|
|
SMU* |
2,013
|
101
|
10
|
1
|
1,177
|
144
|
1917
|
|
South Florida |
3,849
|
149
|
3
|
541
|
326
|
1972
|
||
Temple |
8,165
|
60
|
30
|
2
|
1,766
|
6
|
1895
|
|
Tulane |
2,252
|
135
|
3
|
1,116
|
173
|
1906
|
||
UCF |
5,723
|
84
|
4
|
664
|
294
|
1970
|
||
*For schools with smaller gyms, a lack of a figure does not mean lack of interest; however, Houston and SMU attendance capacity is between 8,000-9,000. UCF's home arena can fit 10,000. |
Temple is the sixth winningest program of all time, and has earned 30 NCAA Tournament appearances along with 2 Final Fours in 107 years of basketball. Connecticut has even stronger recent history, with the Big East's most recent basketball championship (over Butler), and two others to reflect on. Cincinnati has two NCAA championships from 1961 and 1962, and 26 NCAA Tournament appearances. Memphis adds 24 tourney appearances and a strong current team.
South and Central Florida are new programs. Southern Methodist and Tulane have little basketball history. But Houston's mid-80s squads were a fearsome bunch, part of the 5 Final Fours the Cougars have played in and the 19 overall NCAA Tournament appearances.
Only Cincinnati and Memphis look to be on track for an NCAA bid. Much like the Big East's basketball-only schools, the other programs are in need of a conference play surge to reach the Big Dance.
Present numbers may not predict the future. There is growth in any path the Big East's basketball schools will take, and a need for those programs to improve their own brand by winning. It's what got St. Mary's, with 7 tournament appearances, to a point where an eastern league is looking their way. The same with Creighton or St. Mary's. Those programs built themselves up without concern of their conference affiliation.
Conference is still important; it affects a school's ability to gain an at-large bid and to attract fans to watch their basketball product.
With the loss of the four schools to the ACC, there are no good choices with respect to maintaining the strength of "Catholic Seven" basketball. There is no replacing history. But the schools are looking for a secure future, some exposure, and hopefully heated battles that will burn into fans' memories, as the old Syracuse/ Georgetown, St. John's/ UConn, or Seton Hall/ Rutgers games did.