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Last night's 81-65 loss to the San Francisco Dons was frustrating for fans who started to believe that this year's St. John's squad was building something special. But special isn't built in a day, or in a win over South Carolina. The schedule, devoid of big names, is filled with challenges of travel, style, and talent.
The oddsmakers had San Francisco as the favorite; now we see why.
The Johnnies get an easier test against the 1-7 Fordham Rams at the Holiday Festival doubleheader. But first, a look back at the San Francisco game that was. A look at the tempo-neutral numbers from last night, compared to the averages from before the San Francisco game.
- EFG% is field goal percentage with a modifier to account for three-pointers made, making it easier to compare team's true level of scoring;
- percentage of turnovers (TO%), what percentage of possessions end with a turnover;
- offensive rebounding percentage, the team's ability to get their own misses and prevent other teams from getting their misses (i.e., defensive rebounding)
- FT Rate, the ratio of free throws earned divided by field goals taken, a measure of offensive aggressiveness and defensive fouling.
The Four Factors from last night:
Factor |
St. John's
|
Pre-SF StJ Season Avg
|
San Francisco
|
Pre-SF StJ Opponent Season Avg
|
eFG% |
42.1%
|
50.3%
|
58.3%
|
46.0%
|
TO% |
11.9%
|
15.7%
|
13.4%
|
20.3%
|
Off Rebounding |
30.0%
|
29.8%
|
19.4%
|
35.4%
|
FT Rate |
23.8%
|
30.5%
|
46.3%
|
24.9%
|
Comparing last night's performance against the Red Storm season averages, a few things are clear (ignoring an inflated free throw rate as the Red Storm fouled late to extend the game):
- The shots were not falling. One player kept the Red Storm close. It wasn't Phil Greene IV, who shot 2/7 on the night for 6 points. Neither was it D`Angelo Harrison went 1/7 in the second half, a performance far from the steady torrent of buckets 3`Angelo usually provides. He scored 2 points and had 1 assist as the San Francisco Dons did a great job of bottling him up, trapping at times.
- The Dons had no trouble ripping through the Red Storm defense. In the second half, point guard Cody Doolin scored 16 points - 8 on free throws, 8 from the field - and assisted on 7 of 8 of the Dons' second half scores. The Dons had 9 turnovers and scalded the nets, especially from outside (9/15 from the field). The second half was powered by their ability to score inside the arc (9/17 - 53%) against a St. John's team with length and shot blockers.
- On the plus side, St. John's rebounded the ball well. The Dons preferred to run back on defense, cutting off transition opportunities, so that low offensive-rebounding-allowed number is misleading. But Chris Obekpa had 9 rebounds, an improvement for the big man.
- The Red Storm weren't able to get the Dons' stars off the floor or staunch the bleeding with foul shots. That's a matter of style. When St. John's isn't hitting jump shots, the team doesn't yet have a weapon to draw fouls and regain control of the game. Or a weapon to hit threes if Harrison is covered - the team attempted only five three-point shots in the second half.
- Lastly, Jakarr Sampson was a beast. In reaching a new season high of 22 points, Sampson also carried the team in the second half, shooting 6/9 for 13 points.
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